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Liga Alef · Israel
Maccabi Ashdod vs Shimshon Tel Aviv prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Maccabi Ashdod host Shimshon Tel Aviv in the Liga Alef (Israel) on 18 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.85, which the bookmaker market rated at about 51% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Maccabi Ashdod 0–1 Shimshon Tel Aviv.
Going into the match, Maccabi Ashdod had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 6 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Shimshon Tel Aviv had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 6, with 13 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Maccabi Ashdod's last 6 and 4 of Shimshon Tel Aviv's last 6; 2 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Maccabi Ashdod averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Shimshon Tel Aviv averaged 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 2.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.92 goals from Maccabi Ashdod and 1.55 from Shimshon Tel Aviv. From that it rates a home win at 21%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 51%, against 26%, 26% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Maccabi Ashdod (green) and Shimshon Tel Aviv (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Ashdod | DWDDD | 1.33 | 1.17 | 83% | 33% |
| Shimshon Tel Aviv | WLWWD | 2.17 | 1.00 | 67% | 83% |
Averages over each side's last 6 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.35 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Shimshon Tel Aviv Win | 48% | 1.91 |
| Shimshon Tel Aviv HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga Alef matches that day
- Maccabi Kiryat Malachi vs Ironi Beit Shemesh · 18 Oct 2026, 15:05 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: Maccabi Kiryat Malachi Win @ 1.73 - Hapoel Azor vs Dimona · 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.25 - Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Tira · 18 Oct 2026, 14:55 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.66 · FT 0–1