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Liga Alef · Israel
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Tira prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 14:55 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm host Tira in the Liga Alef (Israel) on 18 Oct 2026, 14:55 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.66, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0–1 Tira.
Going into the match, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 6 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Tira had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 7, with 15 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Hapoel Umm al-Fahm's last 6 and 5 of Tira's last 7; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hapoel Umm al-Fahm averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Tira averaged 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.08 goals from Hapoel Umm al-Fahm and 1.52 from Tira. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 46%, against 37%, 27% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (green) and Tira (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | WDDDW | 1.83 | 1.50 | 83% | 67% |
| Tira | WWWDD | 2.14 | 1.00 | 71% | 57% |
Averages over each side's last 7 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.38 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.66 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Win | 35% | 2.50 |
| Tira HT & FT | 28% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga Alef matches that day
- Maccabi Ashdod vs Shimshon Tel Aviv · 18 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 · FT 0–1 - Maccabi Kiryat Malachi vs Ironi Beit Shemesh · 18 Oct 2026, 15:05 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: Maccabi Kiryat Malachi Win @ 1.73 - Hapoel Azor vs Dimona · 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.25