Lille vs Lens prediction and preview

30 Oct 2026, 20:05 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.40Market probability 67%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Lille host Lens in the Ligue 1 (France) on 30 Oct 2026, 20:05 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Lille had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 15. Lens had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 17 conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of Lille's last 10 and 7 of Lens's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lille averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Lens averaged 2.10 scored and 1.60 conceded across 10.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.37 goals from Lille and 1.49 from Lens. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 39%, against 38%, 27% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Lille (green) and Lens (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form44% – 56%

Attack38% – 63%

Defence64% – 36%

Head-to-head80% – 20%

Goals67% – 33%

Overall strength59% – 41%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Lille	DLDLW	1.30	1.50	60%	50%
Lens	WLWLW	1.40	1.70	70%	80%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
BTTS 1st Half - No	77%	1.22
Over 1.5 Goals	76%	1.25
Double Chance 12	73%	1.28
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	70%	1.33
Under 3.5 Goals	67%	1.40
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	63%	1.50
BTTS Yes	58%	1.62
Over 2.5 Goals	53%	1.80

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.