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Second League - Group 1 · Russia
Kyzyltash vs Pobeda prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Kyzyltash host Pobeda in the Second League - Group 1 (Russia) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.45, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Kyzyltash 4–1 Pobeda.
Going into the match, Kyzyltash had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 17. Pobeda had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Kyzyltash's last 10 and 5 of Pobeda's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Kyzyltash averaged 2.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Pobeda averaged 1.25 scored and 1.33 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.18 goals from Kyzyltash and 1.97 from Pobeda. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 35%, against 39%, 30% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 40%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Kyzyltash (green) and Pobeda (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Apr 2026 · Pobeda 0–0 Kyzyltash
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.24 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.29 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.32 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.45 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.52 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Second League - Group 1 matches that day
- Nart Cherkessk vs Rostov II · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Second League - Group 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.65 · FT 1–3 - Druzhba vs Lugansk · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Second League - Group 1
Published pick: Double Chance 1X - Sevastopol vs Izberbash · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Second League - Group 1
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.55 - Spartak Nalchik vs FK Chayka 2 · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Second League - Group 1
Published pick: Double Chance 1X - Angust Nazran vs Shahter Taganrog · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Second League - Group 1
Published pick: Double Chance X2