Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap prediction and preview

19 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Double Chance X2Odds 1.50Market probability 64%Final score 2–1

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Jong Ajax host De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) on 19 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — De Graafschap to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Jong Ajax 2–1 De Graafschap.

Going into the match, Jong Ajax had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 25. De Graafschap had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 23 conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of Jong Ajax's last 10 and 8 of De Graafschap's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Jong Ajax averaged 1.14 goals scored and 2.43 conceded across 7 matches; away from home De Graafschap averaged 1.40 scored and 2.60 conceded across 10.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.94 goals from Jong Ajax and 1.92 from De Graafschap. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 38%, against 36%, 24% and 40% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Jong Ajax (green) and De Graafschap (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form29% – 71%

Attack20% – 80%

Defence35% – 65%

Head-to-head50% – 50%

Goals43% – 57%

Overall strength36% – 63%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Jong Ajax	LDLLW	1.30	2.50	60%	60%
De Graafschap	WDWLW	1.30	2.30	80%	80%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	77%	1.25
BTTS 1st Half - No	66%	1.40
Under 11.5 Corners	56%	1.67
1st Half Over 1.5 Goals	50%	1.83
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	50%	1.83
De Graafschap Win	41%	2.35
1-1	11%	9.00

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.