Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas prediction and preview

18 Oct 2026, 01:10 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Over 1.5 GoalsOdds 1.25Market probability 73%Final score 0–2

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Independiente Medellin host Once Caldas in the Primera A (Colombia) on 18 Oct 2026, 01:10 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Independiente Medellin 0–2 Once Caldas.

Going into the match, Independiente Medellin had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 15. Once Caldas had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 11 conceded.

Both teams scored in 7 of Independiente Medellin's last 10 and 5 of Once Caldas's last 10; 8 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Independiente Medellin averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.06 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Once Caldas averaged 1.27 scored and 1.18 conceded across 11.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.29 goals from Independiente Medellin and 1.23 from Once Caldas. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 34%, against 48%, 28% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Independiente Medellin (green) and Once Caldas (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form50% – 50%

Attack60% – 40%

Defence42% – 58%

Head-to-head71% – 29%

Goals73% – 27%

Overall strength56% – 43%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Independiente Medellin	LWLDL	1.80	1.50	70%	80%
Once Caldas	WDLLW	0.90	1.10	50%	30%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 1X	75%	1.25
Over 1.5 Goals	73%	1.25
Under 3.5 Goals	71%	1.33
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	68%	1.36
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	66%	1.40
Under 9.5 Corners	56%	1.67
BTTS Yes	53%	1.73
Over 2.5 Goals	50%	1.90

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.