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1 Lyga · Lithuania
Hegelmann II vs Tauras prediction and preview
16 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hegelmann II host Tauras in the 1 Lyga (Lithuania) on 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Hegelmann II 4–4 Tauras.
Going into the match, Hegelmann II had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 22. Tauras had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Hegelmann II's last 10 and 7 of Tauras's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hegelmann II averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.64 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Tauras averaged 1.36 scored and 1.45 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.59 goals from Hegelmann II and 2.47 from Tauras. From that it rates a home win at 24%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 56%, against 28%, 22% and 50% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Hegelmann II (green) and Tauras (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hegelmann II | WLLWL | 1.50 | 2.20 | 60% | 80% |
| Tauras | WLLDD | 1.60 | 1.50 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 30 May 2026 · Tauras 6–1 Hegelmann II
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance X2 | 73% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.31 |
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 1.46 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Tauras Win | 50% | 1.80 |
| Tauras HT & FT | 34% | 2.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other 1 Lyga matches that day
- Ekranas vs Dainava · 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · 1 Lyga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 1–3 - Jonava vs BFA · 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · 1 Lyga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.66 · FT 3–0 - Kauno Žalgiris II vs Transinvest 2 · 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · 1 Lyga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 0–2 - Be1 NFA vs Neptūną Klaipėda · 16 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · 1 Lyga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.65 · FT 2–0