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Eredivisie · Netherlands
Groningen vs Ajax prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 14:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Groningen host Ajax in the Eredivisie (Netherlands) on 18 Oct 2026, 14:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Groningen 2–5 Ajax.
Going into the match, Groningen had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 14. Ajax had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 30 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Groningen's last 10 and 9 of Ajax's last 10; 7 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Groningen averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Ajax averaged 2.73 scored and 0.82 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.38 goals from Groningen and 2.72 from Ajax. From that it rates a home win at 17%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 65%, against 25%, 24% and 51% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Groningen (green) and Ajax (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 21 May 2026 · Ajax 2–0 Groningen
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.33 |
| BTTS Yes | 68% | 1.36 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
| Ajax Win | 50% | 1.85 |
| Ajax HT & FT | 33% | 2.88 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Eredivisie matches that day
- NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard · 18 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Twente vs Utrecht · 18 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 - Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar · 18 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: AZ Alkmaar Win @ 1.50 · FT 2–2 - PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles · 18 Oct 2026, 10:15 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44