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Bundesliga · Germany
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München prediction and preview
7 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC · MEWA Arena, Mainz
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FSV Mainz 05 host Bayern München in the Bundesliga (Germany) on 7 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, FSV Mainz 05 had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 19. Bayern München had won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 35 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of FSV Mainz 05's last 10 and 8 of Bayern München's last 10; 7 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FSV Mainz 05 averaged 2.18 goals scored and 1.73 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Bayern München averaged 2.40 scored and 1.47 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.88 goals from FSV Mainz 05 and 2.61 from Bayern München. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 53%, against 14%, 15% and 72% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FSV Mainz 05 (green) and Bayern München (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | LLLWL | 2.00 | 1.90 | 50% | 70% |
| Bayern München | WDWWD | 3.50 | 1.30 | 80% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 Apr 2026 · FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern München
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München Win | 73% | 1.33 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 69% | 1.36 |
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Bayern München 1st Half Win | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Bayern München HT & FT | 53% | 1.83 |
| 2nd Half Higher Goals | 47% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Bundesliga matches that day
- VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen · 7 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg · 7 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: Borussia Dortmund Win @ 1.30 - RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg · 7 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 7 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40