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Virsliga · Latvia
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FK Liepaja host FS Jelgava in the Virsliga (Latvia) on 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FK Liepaja 3–0 FS Jelgava.
Going into the match, FK Liepaja had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 15. FS Jelgava had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of FK Liepaja's last 10 and 4 of FS Jelgava's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FK Liepaja averaged 1.80 goals scored and 1.13 conceded across 15 matches; away from home FS Jelgava averaged 1.25 scored and 1.81 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.77 goals from FK Liepaja and 0.88 from FS Jelgava. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 17%, against 54%, 24% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FK Liepaja (green) and FS Jelgava (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja | LDDDW | 1.40 | 1.50 | 70% | 70% |
| FS Jelgava | LLDLW | 1.00 | 1.50 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Jul 2026 · FS Jelgava 0–2 FK Liepaja
- 26 May 2026 · FS Jelgava 1–1 FK Liepaja
- 12 Apr 2026 · FK Liepaja 1–1 FS Jelgava
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| FK Liepaja Win | 54% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Virsliga matches that day
- Riga vs Super Nova · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Virsliga
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.67