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Virsliga · Latvia
Riga vs Super Nova prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Riga host Super Nova in the Virsliga (Latvia) on 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS No — at least one side to fail to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Riga 2–1 Super Nova.
Going into the match, Riga had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 11. Super Nova had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Riga's last 10 and 3 of Super Nova's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Riga averaged 2.57 goals scored and 0.90 conceded across 21 matches; away from home Super Nova averaged 0.79 scored and 1.14 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.36 goals from Riga and 0.48 from Super Nova. From that it rates a home win at 79%, a draw at 16% and an away win at 5%, against 82%, 12% and 6% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Riga (green) and Super Nova (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga | DWWWW | 1.70 | 1.10 | 70% | 50% |
| Super Nova | LWLLW | 0.60 | 1.10 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 15 Sep 2026 · Super Nova 0–1 Riga
- 24 May 2026 · Riga 3–0 Super Nova
- 14 Apr 2026 · Super Nova 1–4 Riga
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.20 |
| Riga 1st Half Win | 64% | 1.40 |
| Riga HT & FT | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
| 2-0 | 14% | 7.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Virsliga matches that day
- FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Virsliga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44