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First Division · Ireland
Finn Harps vs Bray Wanderers prediction and preview
16 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Finn Harps host Bray Wanderers in the First Division (Ireland) on 16 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Finn Harps 2–0 Bray Wanderers.
Going into the match, Finn Harps had won 1, drawn 0 and lost 9 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 27. Bray Wanderers had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Finn Harps's last 10 and 7 of Bray Wanderers's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Finn Harps averaged 0.64 goals scored and 1.71 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Bray Wanderers averaged 1.47 scored and 1.67 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.14 goals from Finn Harps and 2.24 from Bray Wanderers. From that it rates a home win at 17%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 62%, against 15%, 20% and 65% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Finn Harps (green) and Bray Wanderers (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Harps | LLLLW | 1.00 | 2.70 | 50% | 70% |
| Bray Wanderers | DLWWW | 1.90 | 1.50 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 7 Aug 2026 · Bray Wanderers 5–0 Finn Harps
- 17 Jul 2026 · Finn Harps 0–1 Bray Wanderers
- 4 May 2026 · Finn Harps 2–1 Bray Wanderers
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Bray Wanderers Win | 66% | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other First Division matches that day
- Kerry vs Cork City · 16 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · First Division
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 · FT 1–1 - Longford Town vs Athlone Town · 16 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · First Division
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 · FT 1–0 - Treaty United vs Cobh Ramblers · 16 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · First Division
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 2–0 - Wexford vs UCD · 16 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · First Division
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 2–5