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Segunda Liga · Portugal
Farense vs Penafiel prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Farense host Penafiel in the Segunda Liga (Portugal) on 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Farense to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Farense had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 8. Penafiel had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Farense's last 10 and 6 of Penafiel's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Farense averaged 1.64 goals scored and 0.73 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Penafiel averaged 1.56 scored and 2.00 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.64 goals from Farense and 0.86 from Penafiel. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 19%, against 47%, 29% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 82%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Farense (green) and Penafiel (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Farense Win | 47% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Segunda Liga matches that day
- Feirense vs Benfica B · 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Segunda Liga
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Academica vs Leixoes · 24 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Segunda Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Sporting CP B vs Portimonense · 24 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Segunda Liga
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36