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Segunda Liga · Portugal
Academica vs Leixoes prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Academica host Leixoes in the Segunda Liga (Portugal) on 24 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Academica had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 15. Leixoes had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Academica's last 10 and 4 of Leixoes's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Academica averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.13 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Leixoes averaged 2.10 scored and 1.00 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.52 goals from Academica and 1.88 from Leixoes. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 45%, against 32%, 28% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Academica (green) and Leixoes (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Segunda Liga matches that day
- Farense vs Penafiel · 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · Segunda Liga
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.25 - Feirense vs Benfica B · 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Segunda Liga
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Sporting CP B vs Portimonense · 24 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Segunda Liga
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36