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Premiership · Scotland
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Falkirk host Kilmarnock in the Premiership (Scotland) on 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Falkirk had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Kilmarnock had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Falkirk's last 10 and 6 of Kilmarnock's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Falkirk averaged 1.36 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Kilmarnock averaged 1.82 scored and 1.00 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.32 goals from Falkirk and 1.38 from Kilmarnock. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 37%, against 51%, 25% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Falkirk (green) and Kilmarnock (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk | WLDWD | 1.20 | 1.20 | 70% | 60% |
| Kilmarnock | WLDWD | 1.10 | 1.90 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premiership matches that day
- Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premiership
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Rangers vs ST Johnstone · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premiership
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - ST Mirren vs Dundee · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premiership
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50