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Premier League · Russia
Fakel vs Rodina Moskva prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fakel host Rodina Moskva in the Premier League (Russia) on 24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.34, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Fakel had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 14. Rodina Moskva had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 25 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Fakel's last 10 and 7 of Rodina Moskva's last 10; 4 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fakel averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Rodina Moskva averaged 1.43 scored and 1.93 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.86 goals from Fakel and 1.38 from Rodina Moskva. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 28%, against 45%, 29% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 84%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fakel (green) and Rodina Moskva (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel | WWLWL | 0.90 | 1.40 | 40% | 40% |
| Rodina Moskva | DLLLW | 1.20 | 2.50 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 Apr 2026 · Fakel 1–3 Rodina Moskva
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.32 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.72 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.11 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premier League matches that day
- FC Krasnodar vs Baltika · 24 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov · 24 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.32 - Akron vs Dynamo · 24 Oct 2026, 09:45 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.42