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Cup · Belgium
Excelsior Virton vs Genk prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Excelsior Virton host Genk in the Cup (Belgium) on 17 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Excelsior Virton 0–2 Genk.
Going into the match, Excelsior Virton had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 10. Genk had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Excelsior Virton's last 10 and 6 of Genk's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Excelsior Virton averaged 1.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Genk averaged 1.27 scored and 1.80 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.38 goals from Excelsior Virton and 1.46 from Genk. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 38%, against 18%, 22% and 60% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Excelsior Virton (green) and Genk (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior Virton | LWDWL | 1.80 | 1.00 | 50% | 50% |
| Genk | WLLDD | 1.90 | 1.50 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 79% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Genk Win | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Cup matches that day
- Club Brugge KV vs Lokeren-Temse · 17 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Cup
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.62 · FT 1–0 - RAAL La Louvière vs Liège · 17 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 4–0 - Zulte Waregem vs Seraing United · 17 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Heist vs Antwerp · 17 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.73 - OH Leuven vs Francs Borains · 17 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Albert Quévy-Mons vs Charleroi · 17 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Charleroi Win @ 1.20 · FT 0–0