Estrela vs Casa Pia prediction and preview

24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.33Market probability 71%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Estrela host Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Estrela had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 18. Casa Pia had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 23 conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of Estrela's last 10 and 3 of Casa Pia's last 10; 8 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Estrela averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.15 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Casa Pia averaged 0.83 scored and 1.42 conceded across 12.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.80 goals from Estrela and 0.91 from Casa Pia. From that it rates a home win at 57%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 18%, against 52%, 28% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Estrela (green) and Casa Pia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form56% – 44%

Attack70% – 30%

Defence44% – 56%

Head-to-head40% – 60%

Goals59% – 41%

Overall strength55% – 44%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Estrela	WLLDW	2.00	1.80	80%	80%
Casa Pia	WLWLD	0.60	2.30	30%	40%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

18 Jul 2026 · Estrela 1–2 Casa Pia

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	74%	1.30
Over 1.5 Goals	72%	1.28
Under 3.5 Goals	71%	1.33
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	68%	1.36
Estrela Win	53%	1.80
BTTS Yes	51%	1.80
Under 2.5 Goals	51%	1.85
Over 9.5 Corners	50%	1.83

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.