Alverca vs Arouca prediction and preview

24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

BTTS YesOdds 1.70Market probability 55%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Alverca host Arouca in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Alverca had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 12. Arouca had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 10 conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of Alverca's last 10 and 4 of Arouca's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alverca averaged 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Arouca averaged 1.00 scored and 1.23 conceded across 13.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.07 goals from Alverca and 1.09 from Arouca. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 34%, against 45%, 28% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 45%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Alverca (green) and Arouca (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form56% – 44%

Attack63% – 38%

Defence50% – 50%

Head-to-head50% – 50%

Goals50% – 50%

Overall strength54% – 45%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Alverca	DWWWL	1.40	1.20	60%	50%
Arouca	DWDLD	1.60	1.00	40%	50%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

24 Apr 2026 · Alverca 2–1 Arouca

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	74%	1.25
Double Chance 1X	73%	1.28
Under 3.5 Goals	70%	1.33
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	68%	1.36
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	66%	1.40
Under 9.5 Corners	56%	1.67
BTTS Yes	55%	1.70
Over 2.5 Goals	50%	1.85

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.