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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Estrela vs Benfica prediction and preview
8 Nov 2026, 20:30 UTC · Estadio Jose Gomes, Amadora
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Estrela host Benfica in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 8 Nov 2026, 20:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 3.5 Goals — more than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 2.00, which the bookmaker market rated at about 47% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Estrela had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 18. Benfica had won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 26 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Estrela's last 10 and 7 of Benfica's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Estrela averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.23 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Benfica averaged 2.75 scored and 1.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.86 goals from Estrela and 3.53 from Benfica. From that it rates a home win at 5%, a draw at 10% and an away win at 85%, against 9%, 16% and 76% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Estrela (green) and Benfica (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica Win | 79% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 67% | 1.44 |
| Benfica HT & FT | 63% | 1.53 |
| Benfica 1st Half Win | 57% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primeira Liga matches that day
- Rio Ave vs SC Braga · 8 Nov 2026, 20:30 UTC · Primeira Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Vitória SC vs FC Porto · 8 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC · Primeira Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente · 8 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC · Primeira Liga
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.53