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La Liga · Spain
Elche vs Valencia prediction and preview
1 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC · Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Elche host Valencia in the La Liga (Spain) on 1 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Elche had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 17. Valencia had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Elche's last 10 and 4 of Valencia's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Elche averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.73 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Valencia averaged 1.40 scored and 1.50 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.69 goals from Elche and 0.80 from Valencia. From that it rates a home win at 57%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 16%, against 42%, 28% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Elche (green) and Valencia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other La Liga matches that day
- Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad · 1 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.20 - Racing Santander vs Real Madrid · 1 Nov 2026, 15:15 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 - Getafe vs Sevilla · 1 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.50