Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad prediction and preview

1 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao

The PunterPick prediction

Over 1.5 GoalsOdds 1.20Market probability 78%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Athletic Club host Real Sociedad in the La Liga (Spain) on 1 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Athletic Club had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 10. Real Sociedad had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 15 conceded.

Both teams scored in 4 of Athletic Club's last 10 and 7 of Real Sociedad's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Athletic Club averaged 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Real Sociedad averaged 2.06 scored and 1.76 conceded across 17.

Our team-strength model expects about 2.11 goals from Athletic Club and 1.32 from Real Sociedad. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 23%, against 44%, 26% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 87%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Athletic Club (green) and Real Sociedad (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form33% – 67%

Attack32% – 68%

Defence71% – 29%

Head-to-head29% – 71%

Goals40% – 60%

Overall strength44% – 55%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Athletic Club	WWLDD	1.80	1.00	40%	50%
Real Sociedad	WWWDW	2.40	1.50	70%	80%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	78%	1.20
BTTS 1st Half - No	75%	1.25
Double Chance 12	74%	1.28
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	72%	1.30
Under 3.5 Goals	64%	1.50
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	61%	1.53
BTTS Yes	60%	1.53
Over 2.5 Goals	56%	1.67

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.