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First NL · Croatia
Croatia Zmijavci vs Mladost Ždralovi prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Croatia Zmijavci host Mladost Ždralovi in the First NL (Croatia) on 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Croatia Zmijavci 3–1 Mladost Ždralovi.
Going into the match, Croatia Zmijavci had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 7. Mladost Ždralovi had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Croatia Zmijavci's last 10 and 5 of Mladost Ždralovi's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Croatia Zmijavci averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Mladost Ždralovi averaged 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.35 goals from Croatia Zmijavci and 0.95 from Mladost Ždralovi. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 25%, against 38%, 30% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Croatia Zmijavci (green) and Mladost Ždralovi (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia Zmijavci | WWLLD | 1.50 | 0.70 | 40% | 40% |
| Mladost Ždralovi | WLLWD | 1.20 | 0.90 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 69% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
| Croatia Zmijavci Win | 37% | 2.35 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.