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Segunda División · Spain
Burgos vs Sabadell prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Burgos host Sabadell in the Segunda División (Spain) on 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Burgos 1–0 Sabadell.
Going into the match, Burgos had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 10. Sabadell had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Burgos's last 10 and 5 of Sabadell's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Burgos averaged 1.15 goals scored and 0.85 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Sabadell averaged 1.06 scored and 1.06 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.82 goals from Burgos and 0.74 from Sabadell. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 38% and an away win at 29%, against 37%, 32% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Burgos (green) and Sabadell (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 1X | 68% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.48 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.67 |
| Burgos Win | 37% | 2.50 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 37% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Segunda División matches that day
- Girona vs FC Andorra · 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · Segunda División
Published pick: Double Chance 1X - Valladolid vs Eldense · 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · Segunda División
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 2–3 - Granada CF vs Cadiz · 18 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC · Segunda División
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 · FT 2–0 - AD Ceuta FC vs Oviedo · 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Segunda División
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.36