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Premier League · Wales
Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Briton Ferry host GAP Connah S Quay FC in the Premier League (Wales) on 9 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Briton Ferry 1–2 GAP Connah S Quay FC.
Going into the match, Briton Ferry had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 18. GAP Connah S Quay FC had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Briton Ferry's last 10 and 4 of GAP Connah S Quay FC's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Briton Ferry averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded across 5 matches; away from home GAP Connah S Quay FC averaged 1.88 scored and 1.13 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.66 goals from Briton Ferry and 1.99 from GAP Connah S Quay FC. From that it rates a home win at 11%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 68%, against 16%, 23% and 61% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Briton Ferry (green) and GAP Connah S Quay FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Briton Ferry | WDDLL | 0.80 | 1.80 | 50% | 40% |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | WWWWL | 2.40 | 0.50 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC Win | 61% | 1.48 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.08 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.