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Cup · Slovenia

Brežice vs Aluminij prediction and preview

23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Over 2.5 GoalsOdds 1.65Market probability 57%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Brežice host Aluminij in the Cup (Slovenia) on 23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Brežice had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 19. Aluminij had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 12 conceded.

Both teams scored in 7 of Brežice's last 10 and 5 of Aluminij's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Brežice averaged 2.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Aluminij averaged 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded across 14.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.17 goals from Brežice and 1.49 from Aluminij. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 43%, against 13%, 18% and 69% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 50%.

Form before the match

TeamLast 5ScoredConcededBTTSO2.5
BrežiceWDDLL1.101.9070%60%
AluminijLLDWD1.601.2050%40%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

MarketOur probabilityOdds
Aluminij Win71%1.30
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals71%1.28
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals62%1.47
Over 2.5 Goals57%1.65
BTTS No54%1.72
Aluminij HT & FT51%1.83

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.

More on this match

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