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Süper Lig · Turkey
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Başakşehir host Gaziantep FK in the Süper Lig (Turkey) on 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Başakşehir 2–1 Gaziantep FK.
Going into the match, Başakşehir had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 14. Gaziantep FK had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Başakşehir's last 10 and 5 of Gaziantep FK's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Başakşehir averaged 2.50 goals scored and 0.63 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Gaziantep FK averaged 1.44 scored and 1.44 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.84 goals from Başakşehir and 0.93 from Gaziantep FK. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 18%, against 56%, 24% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Başakşehir (green) and Gaziantep FK (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir | DWLLD | 1.30 | 1.40 | 40% | 40% |
| Gaziantep FK | LLDWL | 1.30 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 May 2026 · Gaziantep FK 1–2 Başakşehir
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Başakşehir Win | 57% | 1.65 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Süper Lig matches that day
- Kocaelispor vs Göztepe · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Süper Lig
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2 - Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor · 18 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC · Süper Lig
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30