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Eredivisie · Netherlands
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction and preview
8 Nov 2026, 15:45 UTC · AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）, Alkmaar
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
AZ Alkmaar host Groningen in the Eredivisie (Netherlands) on 8 Nov 2026, 15:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 3.5 Goals — more than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 2.00, which the bookmaker market rated at about 47% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, AZ Alkmaar had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 12. Groningen had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 24 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of AZ Alkmaar's last 10 and 8 of Groningen's last 10; 4 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AZ Alkmaar averaged 2.07 goals scored and 1.43 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Groningen averaged 1.89 scored and 2.00 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.32 goals from AZ Alkmaar and 1.23 from Groningen. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 18%, against 62%, 21% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 48%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between AZ Alkmaar (green) and Groningen (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | LLLWD | 1.10 | 1.20 | 40% | 40% |
| Groningen | LLDLW | 2.00 | 2.40 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| AZ Alkmaar Win | 63% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| AZ Alkmaar HT & FT | 43% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Eredivisie matches that day
- Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen · 8 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven · 8 Nov 2026, 15:45 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Twente vs Ajax · 8 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - Heerenveen vs Feyenoord · 8 Nov 2026, 11:15 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44