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Liga de Ascenso · Costa Rica
Aserri FC vs Santa Cruz FC prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aserri FC host Santa Cruz FC in the Liga de Ascenso (Costa Rica) on 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Aserri FC Win — Aserri FC to win. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aserri FC 2–1 Santa Cruz FC.
Going into the match, Aserri FC had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 11. Santa Cruz FC had won 2, drawn 0 and lost 8 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Aserri FC's last 10 and 5 of Santa Cruz FC's last 10; 4 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aserri FC averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Santa Cruz FC averaged 0.60 scored and 3.20 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.40 goals from Aserri FC and 0.97 from Santa Cruz FC. From that it rates a home win at 68%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 13%, against 57%, 24% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aserri FC (green) and Santa Cruz FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aserri FC | DDWLL | 1.30 | 1.10 | 60% | 40% |
| Santa Cruz FC | LLLLW | 1.10 | 2.20 | 50% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 30 Aug 2026 · Santa Cruz FC 1–2 Aserri FC
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.26 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.50 |
| Aserri FC Win | 57% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.69 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga de Ascenso matches that day
- Santa Ana vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Liga de Ascenso
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.65 - Aserri FC vs AD Carmelita · 18 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · Liga de Ascenso
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.66 · FT 1–1 - AD Sarchí vs Municipal Grecia · 18 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · Liga de Ascenso
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.69 · FT 2–0