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Liga de Ascenso · Costa Rica
Aserri FC vs AD Carmelita prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aserri FC host AD Carmelita in the Liga de Ascenso (Costa Rica) on 18 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.66, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aserri FC 1–1 AD Carmelita.
Going into the match, Aserri FC had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 11. AD Carmelita had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Aserri FC's last 10 and 5 of AD Carmelita's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aserri FC averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded across 9 matches; away from home AD Carmelita averaged 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.43 goals from Aserri FC and 1.19 from AD Carmelita. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 30%, against 40%, 27% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aserri FC (green) and AD Carmelita (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aserri FC | DDWLL | 1.30 | 1.10 | 60% | 40% |
| AD Carmelita | LWWWD | 1.70 | 1.10 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 29 Aug 2026 · AD Carmelita 1–2 Aserri FC
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.41 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.66 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Aserri FC Win | 39% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga de Ascenso matches that day
- Santa Ana vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Liga de Ascenso
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.65 - AD Sarchí vs Municipal Grecia · 18 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · Liga de Ascenso
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.69 · FT 2–0 - Aserri FC vs Santa Cruz FC · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · Liga de Ascenso
Published pick: Aserri FC Win @ 1.57 · FT 2–1