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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Arouca vs Nacional prediction and preview
1 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC · Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Aruca
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Arouca host Nacional in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 1 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Arouca to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 79% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Arouca had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 10. Nacional had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Arouca's last 10 and 4 of Nacional's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Arouca averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Nacional averaged 0.78 scored and 1.56 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.75 goals from Arouca and 0.81 from Nacional. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 16%, against 53%, 25% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 84%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Arouca (green) and Nacional (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Arouca Win | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primeira Liga matches that day
- SC Braga vs Famalicao · 1 Nov 2026, 20:30 UTC · Primeira Liga
Published pick: Famalicao Under 1.5 Goals @ 1.20 - Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave · 1 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC · Primeira Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Maritimo vs Santa Clara · 1 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC · Primeira Liga
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.53