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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Algeciras vs Hércules prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Algeciras host Hércules in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Algeciras 2–0 Hércules.
Going into the match, Algeciras had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 19. Hércules had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Algeciras's last 10 and 3 of Hércules's last 10; 6 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Algeciras averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Hércules averaged 1.00 scored and 0.57 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.09 goals from Algeciras and 0.83 from Hércules. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 26%, against 33%, 30% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 May 2026 · Algeciras 0–2 Hércules
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
| Hércules Win | 36% | 2.45 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches that day
- Villarreal II vs Teruel · 17 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.25 · FT 2–0 - Águilas vs Ibiza · 17 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–2