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Eredivisie · Netherlands
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction and preview
31 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ajax host AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie (Netherlands) on 31 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Ajax had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 28 and conceding 13. AZ Alkmaar had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Ajax's last 10 and 5 of AZ Alkmaar's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ajax averaged 1.89 goals scored and 1.26 conceded across 19 matches; away from home AZ Alkmaar averaged 1.91 scored and 0.91 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.74 goals from Ajax and 1.77 from AZ Alkmaar. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 39%, against 54%, 22% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ajax (green) and AZ Alkmaar (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | WWWLD | 2.80 | 1.30 | 80% | 80% |
| AZ Alkmaar | LWDWL | 1.80 | 1.30 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.33 |
| BTTS Yes | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Ajax Win | 53% | 1.73 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 48% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Eredivisie matches that day
- Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles · 31 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen · 31 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.33 - PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II · 31 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 - Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard · 31 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.80