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Birinci Dasta · Azerbaijan
Zaqatala vs Səbail prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Zaqatala host Səbail in the Birinci Dasta (Azerbaijan) on 15 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Zaqatala 1–3 Səbail.
Going into the match, Zaqatala had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 28. Səbail had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Zaqatala's last 10 and 4 of Səbail's last 10; 9 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Zaqatala averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Səbail averaged 1.83 scored and 1.17 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.93 goals from Zaqatala and 2.65 from Səbail. From that it rates a home win at 10%, a draw at 17% and an away win at 73%, against 8%, 17% and 75% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Zaqatala (green) and Səbail (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 6 May 2026 · Zaqatala 0–3 Səbail
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.29 |
| Səbail Win | 72% | 1.20 |
| BTTS No | 63% | 1.61 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Səbail 1st Half Win | 56% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Səbail HT & FT | 54% | 1.73 |
| 0-3 | 14% | 6.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Birinci Dasta matches that day
- Xankəndi FK vs Şahdağ · 15 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Birinci Dasta
Published pick: Şahdağ Win @ 1.53 · FT 1–0 - Mingəçevir vs Şimal · 15 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Birinci Dasta
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 1–4