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Birinci Dasta · Azerbaijan
Mingəçevir vs Şimal prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Mingəçevir host Şimal in the Birinci Dasta (Azerbaijan) on 15 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Mingəçevir 1–4 Şimal.
Going into the match, Mingəçevir had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 19. Şimal had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Mingəçevir's last 10 and 7 of Şimal's last 10; 8 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Mingəçevir averaged 3.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Şimal averaged 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.77 goals from Mingəçevir and 2.03 from Şimal. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 44%, against 32%, 25% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Mingəçevir (green) and Şimal (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mingəçevir | LLLDL | 1.80 | 1.90 | 60% | 80% |
| Şimal | DLDLW | 1.10 | 1.30 | 70% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 Apr 2026 · Şimal 0–3 Mingəçevir
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.23 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.50 |
| Double Chance 1X | 62% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
| Şimal Win | 39% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Birinci Dasta matches that day
- Xankəndi FK vs Şahdağ · 15 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Birinci Dasta
Published pick: Şahdağ Win @ 1.53 · FT 1–0 - Zaqatala vs Səbail · 15 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Birinci Dasta
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70 · FT 1–3