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Persha Liga · Ukraine
Yarud Mariupol' vs Nyva Ternopil prediction and preview
5 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Yarud Mariupol' host Nyva Ternopil in the Persha Liga (Ukraine) on 5 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Yarud Mariupol' 0–0 Nyva Ternopil.
Going into the match, Yarud Mariupol' had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 12. Nyva Ternopil had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Yarud Mariupol''s last 10 and 6 of Nyva Ternopil's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Yarud Mariupol' averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Nyva Ternopil averaged 0.92 scored and 1.23 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.41 goals from Yarud Mariupol' and 0.63 from Nyva Ternopil. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 16%, against 54%, 27% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Yarud Mariupol' (green) and Nyva Ternopil (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yarud Mariupol' | DWWLD | 1.80 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Nyva Ternopil | DWLLD | 0.90 | 1.30 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 May 2026 · Nyva Ternopil 0–3 Yarud Mariupol'
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| Yarud Mariupol' Win | 54% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.71 |
| Yarud Mariupol' HT & FT | 36% | 2.62 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
| 1-0 | 16% | 6.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.