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III Liga - Group 1 · Poland
Warta Sieradz vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Warta Sieradz host Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki in the III Liga - Group 1 (Poland) on 3 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.49, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Warta Sieradz 1–1 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki.
Going into the match, Warta Sieradz had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 15. Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 26 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Warta Sieradz's last 10 and 8 of Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki's last 10; 9 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Warta Sieradz averaged 1.92 goals scored and 1.77 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki averaged 2.40 scored and 1.60 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.96 goals from Warta Sieradz and 1.73 from Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 34%, against 38%, 25% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Warta Sieradz (green) and Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warta Sieradz | DWWLL | 2.00 | 1.50 | 70% | 90% |
| Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | LWWWD | 2.60 | 1.70 | 80% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 74% | 1.24 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.29 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.49 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.35 |
| Warta Sieradz Win | 38% | 2.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.