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First NL · Croatia
Vukovar vs Hrvace prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Vukovar host Hrvace in the First NL (Croatia) on 10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Vukovar 1–0 Hrvace.
Going into the match, Vukovar had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 19. Hrvace had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Vukovar's last 10 and 4 of Hrvace's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Vukovar averaged 1.36 goals scored and 2.09 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Hrvace averaged 0.75 scored and 1.88 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.97 goals from Vukovar and 1.07 from Hrvace. From that it rates a home win at 57%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 19%, against 47%, 27% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Vukovar (green) and Hrvace (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.