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Liga 3 · Portugal
Vitória de Sernache vs Louletano prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Vitória de Sernache host Louletano in the Liga 3 (Portugal) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Vitória de Sernache 1–0 Louletano.
Going into the match, Vitória de Sernache had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 16. Louletano had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Vitória de Sernache's last 10 and 7 of Louletano's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Vitória de Sernache averaged 0.71 goals scored and 0.71 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Louletano averaged 1.88 scored and 1.00 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.10 goals from Vitória de Sernache and 0.90 from Louletano. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 28%, against 33%, 28% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória de Sernache | WLLWL | 1.30 | 1.60 | 50% | 60% |
| Louletano | DLWWW | 1.30 | 1.10 | 70% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 31 May 2026 · Vitória de Sernache 1–1 Louletano
- 10 May 2026 · Louletano 1–2 Vitória de Sernache
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.78 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.25 |
| Louletano Win | 38% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.