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Serie D - Girone I · Italy
Vigor Lamezia vs CastrumFavara prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Vigor Lamezia host CastrumFavara in the Serie D - Girone I (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — CastrumFavara to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.45, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Vigor Lamezia 2–0 CastrumFavara.
Going into the match, Vigor Lamezia had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 18. CastrumFavara had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 9, with 16 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Vigor Lamezia's last 10 and 5 of CastrumFavara's last 9; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Vigor Lamezia averaged 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded across 5 matches; away from home CastrumFavara averaged 1.75 scored and 1.00 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.68 goals from Vigor Lamezia and 1.10 from CastrumFavara. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 24%, against 38%, 29% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 50%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Vigor Lamezia (green) and CastrumFavara (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vigor Lamezia | LLDDL | 1.20 | 1.80 | 80% | 60% |
| CastrumFavara | LLDLW | 1.78 | 1.00 | 56% | 67% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.39 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| CastrumFavara Win | 33% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.