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La Liga · Spain
Valencia vs Athletic Club prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Valencia host Athletic Club in the La Liga (Spain) on 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Valencia 0–0 Athletic Club.
Going into the match, Valencia had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 18. Athletic Club had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Valencia's last 10 and 4 of Athletic Club's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Valencia averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.58 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Athletic Club averaged 2.43 scored and 1.43 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.01 goals from Valencia and 1.52 from Athletic Club. From that it rates a home win at 24%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 48%, against 30%, 29% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Valencia (green) and Athletic Club (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | DLWLL | 0.70 | 1.80 | 40% | 50% |
| Athletic Club | DDWWL | 1.20 | 1.30 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 May 2026 · Athletic Club 0–1 Valencia
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 70% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other La Liga matches that day
- Real Betis vs Barcelona · 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.33 - Villarreal vs Elche · 17 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Villarreal Win @ 1.45 - Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1