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J1 League · Japan
V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy prediction and preview
1 Nov 2026, 05:00 UTC · Peace Stadium connected by SoftBank, Nagasaki
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
V-varen Nagasaki host Tokyo Verdy in the J1 League (Japan) on 1 Nov 2026, 05:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, V-varen Nagasaki had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 11. Tokyo Verdy had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of V-varen Nagasaki's last 10 and 5 of Tokyo Verdy's last 10; 2 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home V-varen Nagasaki averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Tokyo Verdy averaged 0.67 scored and 0.83 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.38 goals from V-varen Nagasaki and 0.92 from Tokyo Verdy. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 24%, against 38%, 29% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between V-varen Nagasaki (green) and Tokyo Verdy (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V-varen Nagasaki | LWLDD | 1.10 | 1.10 | 40% | 20% |
| Tokyo Verdy | WDLLD | 0.90 | 1.40 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| Double Chance 1X | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| V-varen Nagasaki Win | 39% | 2.45 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J1 League matches that day
- Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka · 1 Nov 2026, 07:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka · 1 Nov 2026, 05:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale · 1 Nov 2026, 04:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50