UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar prediction and preview

23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.44Market probability 64%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

UTC Cajamarca host FBC Melgar in the Primera División (Peru) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, UTC Cajamarca had won 0, drawn 2 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 20. FBC Melgar had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 11 conceded.

Both teams scored in 7 of UTC Cajamarca's last 10 and 5 of FBC Melgar's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home UTC Cajamarca averaged 1.42 goals scored and 1.58 conceded across 12 matches; away from home FBC Melgar averaged 1.31 scored and 0.92 conceded across 13.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.07 goals from UTC Cajamarca and 1.80 from FBC Melgar. From that it rates a home win at 21%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 53%, against 17%, 21% and 62% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between UTC Cajamarca (green) and FBC Melgar (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form0% – 100%

Attack31% – 69%

Defence33% – 67%

Head-to-head0% – 100%

Goals18% – 82%

Overall strength27% – 72%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
UTC Cajamarca	LLLLL	1.00	2.00	70%	50%
FBC Melgar	WDDWW	1.70	1.10	50%	50%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

4 May 2026 · FBC Melgar 2–0 UTC Cajamarca

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	79%	1.20
Over 1.5 Goals	78%	1.20
BTTS 1st Half - No	78%	1.20
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	72%	1.30
Under 3.5 Goals	64%	1.44
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	63%	1.50
FBC Melgar Win	61%	1.50
Over 2.5 Goals	56%	1.67

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.