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FNL · Czech Republic
Ústí nad Labem vs Karviná prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ústí nad Labem host Karviná in the FNL (Czech Republic) on 23 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Ústí nad Labem had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 9. Karviná had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Ústí nad Labem's last 10 and 6 of Karviná's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ústí nad Labem averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.36 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Karviná averaged 1.77 scored and 1.54 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.36 goals from Ústí nad Labem and 1.40 from Karviná. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 37%, against 32%, 26% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ústí nad Labem (green) and Karviná (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ústí nad Labem | DLWLD | 1.50 | 0.90 | 50% | 50% |
| Karviná | WWDWL | 2.20 | 1.10 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FNL matches that day
- Dukla Praha vs Kladno · 23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · FNL
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Vysočina Jihlava vs Vlašim · 23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · FNL
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Opava vs Baník Ostrava II · 23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · FNL
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Táborsko vs Třinec · 23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · FNL
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44