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J3 League · Japan
Tochigi SC vs Renofa Yamaguchi prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tochigi SC host Renofa Yamaguchi in the J3 League (Japan) on 11 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tochigi SC 0–1 Renofa Yamaguchi.
Going into the match, Tochigi SC had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 16. Renofa Yamaguchi had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Tochigi SC's last 10 and 4 of Renofa Yamaguchi's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tochigi SC averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.15 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Renofa Yamaguchi averaged 1.69 scored and 1.54 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.81 goals from Tochigi SC and 1.19 from Renofa Yamaguchi. From that it rates a home win at 24%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 44%, against 35%, 28% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tochigi SC (green) and Renofa Yamaguchi (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tochigi SC | DLLDL | 1.10 | 1.60 | 60% | 50% |
| Renofa Yamaguchi | WDWWW | 1.40 | 1.00 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.69 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 2.00 |
| Renofa Yamaguchi Win | 36% | 2.45 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.