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Liga MX · Mexico
Tigres UANL vs Toluca prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tigres UANL host Toluca in the Liga MX (Mexico) on 10 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tigres UANL 3–2 Toluca.
Going into the match, Tigres UANL had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Toluca had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Tigres UANL's last 10 and 5 of Toluca's last 10; 1 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tigres UANL averaged 1.92 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Toluca averaged 1.54 scored and 1.54 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.15 goals from Tigres UANL and 1.38 from Toluca. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 41%, against 33%, 26% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tigres UANL (green) and Toluca (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | WLDDD | 0.70 | 0.70 | 40% | 10% |
| Toluca | LDLWW | 2.40 | 1.10 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 31 May 2026 · Toluca 0–0 Tigres UANL
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.