Tartu Welco vs Nõmme United II prediction and preview

18 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Tartu Welco WinOdds 1.59Market probability 61%Final score 4–3

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Tartu Welco host Nõmme United II in the Esiliiga A (Estonia) on 18 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Tartu Welco Win — Tartu Welco to win. It was published at odds of 1.59, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Tartu Welco 4–3 Nõmme United II.

Going into the match, Tartu Welco had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 28 and conceding 9. Nõmme United II had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 14 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Tartu Welco's last 10 and 6 of Nõmme United II's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tartu Welco averaged 2.92 goals scored and 1.69 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Nõmme United II averaged 2.00 scored and 2.79 conceded across 14.

Our team-strength model expects about 3.22 goals from Tartu Welco and 1.28 from Nõmme United II. From that it rates a home win at 75%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 11%, against 58%, 20% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Tartu Welco (green) and Nõmme United II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form59% – 41%

Attack70% – 30%

Defence100% – 0%

Head-to-head67% – 33%

Goals64% – 36%

Overall strength66% – 33%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Tartu Welco	WWWWD	2.80	0.90	50%	70%
Nõmme United II	LWWWL	1.20	1.40	60%	50%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

1 Aug 2026 · Nõmme United II 2–1 Tartu Welco
21 Jun 2026 · Tartu Welco 5–2 Nõmme United II

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Tartu Welco Win	58%	1.59
1st Half Over 1.5 Goals	56%	1.67
Tartu Welco HT & FT	41%	2.30
2-1	13%	7.50

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.