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Meistriliiga · Estonia
Tammeka vs Trans Narva prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tammeka host Trans Narva in the Meistriliiga (Estonia) on 23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Tammeka had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 20. Trans Narva had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Tammeka's last 10 and 5 of Trans Narva's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tammeka averaged 2.73 goals scored and 1.07 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Trans Narva averaged 0.47 scored and 2.80 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.89 goals from Tammeka and 0.81 from Trans Narva. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 14%, against 45%, 26% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tammeka (green) and Trans Narva (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tammeka | LLWWL | 1.70 | 2.00 | 50% | 70% |
| Trans Narva | LLDDL | 0.90 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 30 Aug 2026 · Trans Narva 0–2 Tammeka
- 21 Jun 2026 · Tammeka 1–0 Trans Narva
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Meistriliiga matches that day
- Nõmme United vs Vaprus · 23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Meistriliiga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44