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Meistriliiga · Estonia
Nõmme United vs Vaprus prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Nõmme United host Vaprus in the Meistriliiga (Estonia) on 23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Nõmme United had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 22. Vaprus had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Nõmme United's last 10 and 6 of Vaprus's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Nõmme United averaged 2.38 goals scored and 1.94 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Vaprus averaged 1.33 scored and 1.89 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.80 goals from Nõmme United and 1.70 from Vaprus. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 36%, against 45%, 25% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Nõmme United (green) and Vaprus (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nõmme United | WLLLL | 1.30 | 2.20 | 60% | 80% |
| Vaprus | LDDLL | 1.40 | 2.20 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 5 Sep 2026 · Vaprus 1–0 Nõmme United
- 2 Sep 2026 · Nõmme United 3–2 Vaprus
- 2 May 2026 · Vaprus 2–3 Nõmme United
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Nõmme United Win | 45% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Meistriliiga matches that day
- Tammeka vs Trans Narva · 23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Meistriliiga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44