Sumqayıt vs Araz prediction and preview

16 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

BTTS YesOdds 1.62Market probability 56%Final score 2–1

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Sumqayıt host Araz in the Premyer Liqa (Azerbaijan) on 16 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.62, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Sumqayıt 2–1 Araz.

Going into the match, Sumqayıt had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 18. Araz had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 19 conceded.

Both teams scored in 9 of Sumqayıt's last 10 and 5 of Araz's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sumqayıt averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Araz averaged 1.00 scored and 2.50 conceded across 6.

Our team-strength model expects about 2.14 goals from Sumqayıt and 1.22 from Araz. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 20%, against 41%, 29% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Sumqayıt (green) and Araz (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form83% – 17%

Attack58% – 42%

Defence63% – 38%

Head-to-head50% – 50%

Goals45% – 55%

Overall strength61% – 38%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Sumqayıt	WDDLL	1.50	1.80	90%	70%
Araz	LLDLL	1.10	1.90	50%	60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

9 May 2026 · Sumqayıt 2–1 Araz

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	74%	1.25
Double Chance 12	72%	1.28
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	70%	1.33
Under 3.5 Goals	69%	1.36
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	65%	1.44
BTTS Yes	56%	1.62
Over 2.5 Goals	51%	1.85
Under 2.5 Goals	49%	1.95

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.